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Transition to emission-free personal transportation in the Czech Republic
Kessler, Daniel ; Ščasný, Milan (advisor) ; Kmeťková, Diana (referee)
What is the future of electric vehicles? Road transportation significantly con- tributes to undesired emissions which can cause health issues and environmen- tal damage. Replacing conventional vehicles with electric vehicles can be an adequate solution. This thesis aims to forecast the level of adoption of elec- tric passenger vehicles in the Czech Republic until 2050, using monthly vehicle registry data from 2009 to 2022. Using the Bass diffusion model, we estimate innovation and imitation parameters to forecast (the first) incremental and cu- mulative adoption of battery electric and, partly, of plug-in hybrid vehicles, until 2050. We rely on an exogenously pre-defined passenger vehicle fleet since the approach based on endogenously determined stock fails to provide a cred- ible forecast. Due to the low adoption rate of battery electric vehicles before 2016, we examine how using more recent data or calibration of the innovation parameter may improve the forecasting model. We also model the replacements of battery electric vehicles after their retirement to derive a total number of new registrations. Additional forecasts are performed for different fleet sizes and retirement ages. We have found that the calibration-based forecast pro- vides a larger share of battery electric vehicles until 2030...
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The impact of electric vehicles on the automobile industry
Pavelková, Adéla ; Chytilová, Julie (advisor) ; Žigraiová, Diana (referee)
The main aim of this bachelor thesis is to identify the current and future importance of the electric vehicles. Apart from global situation, it also investigates the development in China, Europe, Norway and the U.S. To see the future position of electric vehicles on the automotive market, trend analysis and Bass Diffusion Model were used. The results showed that in the year 2035, the share of sales of electric vehicles will slowly approach a threshold of 50% in all analysed regions. The exception is Norway where the market of electric vehicles is already developed. Next, the correlation analysis was applied to measure the relationship between the sales of electric vehicles and internal combustion engine vehicles. It was shown that the correlation is relatively strong with the same direction. The sales are influenced by similar factors. Furthermore, the correlation analysis was used to detect the relationship between the sales of electric vehicles and price of gasoline. The coefficient was positive. At the end, the regression analysis was applied to measure the cross elasticity of demand between electric and internal combustion engine vehicles. It was proved that these vehicles are substitutes. That means that the price of internal combustion engine vehicle can affect the sales of electric vehicles.
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